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Click here to get True Nicks for your mare now.
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Initially theorized by
pedigree analysts Byron Rogers
and Alan Porter of Pedigree Research, the proprietary
formula for calculating TrueNicks grades was developed
in partnership with Blood-Horse Publications using
data made available by The Jockey Club Information Systems.
'It’s a system
designed to evaluate sire/broodmare sire
crosses. It’s the only system that’s able to take into account
- because of the information
available from The Jockey Club
Information Systems - all foals on a cross. It gives true
opportunity for a cross. While it only examines the sire line/broodmare
sire line cross, that aspect through studies of more
than 100,000 horses has shown to have a tremendous correlation
of success." - Alan Porter
The information
below is taken directly from TrueNicks.com. Click here for Frequently
Asked Questions.
NOTE: You must use the "back"
button on your browser to return to Key Ranch from the True Nicks
page.
Nicks in History
Compatibility of stallions from one
male line with mares from other sire lines has shaped the breed
since the Eclipse/Herod cross of the late 18th century. Called
nicks, these successful crosses–Hermit/Stockwell,
Lexington/Glencoe, Bend Or/Macaroni, Phalaris/Chaucer–have made
a profound impact on the development of the Thoroughbred. In the
modern era, the prolific Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross has
produced outstanding racehorses and sires such as Kingmambo,
Distorted Humor, Elusive Quality, Thunder Gulch, and Grand Slam.
Fast-Forward to the 21st Century
Computers have now made it possible
to measure and rate nicks, which has given rise to a commercial
market for such statistics. Though popular, the nick ratings
offered to the public to date have been compromised by incomplete
data. This inevitably yields results based on hypothetical rather
than real opportunity. This statistical gap was the impetus behind
the development of TrueNicks.
A Different Approach
Unlike other ratings that are
calculated on the basis of hypothetical opportunity among a
limited group of horses, the TrueNicks rating utilizes the
database of The Jockey Club – the world’s most complete
records of Thoroughbreds and their performance — to produce a
sophisticated rating based on all foals for a given cross.
The Statistics
A TrueNicks rating is derived from
two statistical elements: a Sire Improvement Index (SII) and a
Broodmare Sire Improvement Index (BSII). Both of them compare the
percentage of progeny stakes winners to starters. An SII of 2.0
indicates the sire/sire line has twice the percentage of stakes
winners out of mares by the broodmare sire/sire line as he does
when bred to all other mares. A BSII of 3.0 indicates that that
the percentage of stakes winners out of a stallion’s daughters
when bred to the chosen sire/sire line is 3.0 times as high as the
percentage of stakes winners produced by the same mares when bred
to all other studs.
The TrueNicks Calculation
The TrueNicks rating is then
calculated by multiplying the SII by the BSII, effectively
recognizing the real opportunity and performance of the given
cross. In the example above, an SII of 2.0 and a BSII of 3.0 would
result in a TrueNicks variant score of 6.0, indicating that the
nick performs six times better than average opportunity,
translating to an A+ TrueNicks rating.
Meaningful Ratings
With the entire database of The
Jockey Club at its disposal during development, the TrueNicks
rating was calibrated on a test group of over 100,000 horses of
racing age. Converting the raw TrueNicks score to a letter rating
– A to D and F, as in the academic system – reveals some
intriguing results that verify the existence of nicks across a
whole population. For example:
- While only 13% of the entire
Thoroughbred population earn “A” rankings (A to A++), 37%
of the stakes winners rate as “A’s.”
- Horses rated “B” or better
(B to A++) represent just 30% of the entire population, yet 3
out of 4 (77%) stakes winners rank “B” or better.
- Almost half of Thoroughbreds in
general–44%–are on the low end of the scale (rated “C”
through “F”), yet only two in 25 stakes winners (8%) have
these lower rankings.
Keep Reading
Additional information about the
TrueNicks system may be found on the Frequently
Asked Questions page.
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to return to Key Ranch from the True Nicks page.
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